So, this is it! The Secretary General of AKEL is running for president of the Republic! The tripartite arrangement between AKEL, DIKO and EDEK is over...at least for now. DISI is supporting former minister of foreign Affairs and current Euro MP, Dr. Kasoulides and Mr. Themistocleous, former minister of Agriculture announced his candidature some time ago, but so far there has been no reaction to it, from any major or minor political party.
The question still begs whether he will "disrupt" the political environment; offer something that will attract voters from outside his party and particularly from those groups within the other parties that do not agree with the unequivocal support to the current president, Mr. Papadopoulos. I think he will try to be that candidate, but I am not sure he will succeed. He will play the usual game. AKEL hopes that Mr. Kasoulides candidature will manage to attract those moderate voters within EDEK and DIKO who don't like the Papadopoulos line in foreign and domestic policies, thus causing enough damage to Mr. Papadopoulos candidature, allowing, in turn, Mr. Christofias to pass the first round threshold. Moreover, AKEL plans to attract those left-leaning voters from within DIKO who were not been "taken care off" by Mr. Papadopoulos, and who may like him out of the way so as to broker a new deal with AKEL in the "second Sunday!" In short, AKEL does have a good chance.
I am not sure what was exactly debated within the soviet-style AKEL apparatus, but the decision is a win – win for AKEL. If Mr. Christofias doesn't get to the second round, they still have a chance to support Mr. Papadopoulos in a qui pro quo fashion, even though their leverage to secure returns will diminish from the vary fact that, in this scenario, Mr. Kasoulides will be the other (non) option for AKEL. Especially, if EDEK decides to support Mr. Kasoulides in this case.
The other party that managed to square the circle is EDEK. They will go with Mr. Papadopoulos, and if he gets elected Mr. Omirou will be the new "big Kahuna" in the next administration. If Mr. Papadopoulos fails to get to the second round, EDEK still has the chance to break a deal with AKEL. And their leverage will not be diminished at all since they can swing the other way and support Mr. Kasoulides, and even claim that their support will provide "guaranties" that various ideas in respect to the Cyprus issue will remain...ideas.
Therefore, who looses? Obviously DIKO stands to loose the most, if Mr. Papadopoulos fails to advance to the second round. In such a case, DIKO will find it very hard to break any deal with Mr. Kasoulides, because of the differences between them in the handling of the Cyprus issue, and more importantly, because of the unwillingness of a large segment of DISI to cooperate with DIKO. However, voices and arguments calling for a "revised" DIKO may be presented, and maybe Mr. M. Kyprianou, Mr. Galanos and others may have a chance for a comeback, in this case.
What about EUROKO? The safest and smartest thing for EUROKO to do, is to copy EDEK strategy. They can go with Mr. Papadopoulos for now, and if he doesn't get through, they can switch to Mr. Kasoulides. And it will be even easier for them to do so than EDEK, because there is a good chance Mr. Kasoulides will have the support of another small party, EURODIMOKRATIA of Mr. Prodromou. If that happens, Mr. Kasoulides will have enough credibility to claim that his candidature truly synthesizes among all the Cyprus issue positions, thus making it easier for Mr. Sillouris party to satisfy the ideological concerns of his party. Whether the various personalities in DISI, EUROKO and EURODIMOKRATIA can get along, considering their past relationship, is another matter, and in high power stakes, mostly irrelevant.
In any case, the above scenarios do not attempt to provide any "fortune teller – like" prediction of the outcome of the next presidential election, but do attempt to indicate the risk environment each party is facing, overall. And like any other scenario, they are useful only if they can help those affected taking the steps necessary to cancel out those scenarios that don't suit them.
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The hardest thing to predict is the future, as it seems. Yet, I think we can truly speak for a wide choice of candidates with clear differences, both ideological and pragmatical.
According to POLITIS' survey, which took place prior to Xristofias' candidacy, voters are most likely to elect Mr. Papadopoulos and Mr. Kasoulides in the second round, in which case AKEL is bound to act in only one way.
It's ideological and historical distrust to DH.SY and the right (which nowadays seems more right of center than right) as well as their inability to admit that supporting Papadopoulos in his first term will force them to come back to him. The contradiction here is obvious. They claim that the tripartite alliance was well functioning and successful, yet they run for the elections with their own candidate and yet they say they will never co-operate with DH.SY. Go figure for a coherent political ethos.
The second scenario is the one where AKEL develops such a dynamic before the elections (assuming nothing important happens with regards to the Cyprus problem, the 100 million recent package by the government nonwithstanding) that they, with Mr. Kasoulides pass in the second round. What will DHKO do?
Do they support the party who sold them? Do they support the candidate of the party who was their opposition (they didn't mind in the past of course)? I cannot tell.
Finally the most important scenario is the one where Kasoulides is disqualified and Papadopoulos and Xristofias pass to the second round. I think most voters, in such a case should feel like idiots for voting whoever they vote, since we will for the first time have both sides of the same coin (as preached daily when EDEK, AKEL and DHKO bless the TRIMERIS). It will be a fars like when Mavronikolas of EDEK was minister of Defense, yet he complained that EDEK people within the ministry were mistreated. How can you bless your partner then run against him? How can you be a minister and your people are mistreated? We are in for a laugh.
One thing is certain. We cannot make predictions from now, and that this presidential race will be the most interesting since the inception of the Republic.
I do not believe this election will be more interesting than the Vasiliou / Clerides battles... the issues are much more asfixiating now, i.e. there is a complete fixation on the yes/no stand. If anything these might be the most "poromeno" election cycle in our history, but not the most interesting.
Christofias is making a historic error by running for president in my opinion... Cyprus is too capitalistic a society to elect an idealogue... on either side of the spectrum.
-Panos
Προτού αναφερθώ στο υπό συζήτηση θέμα επιτρέψτε μου μια εξήγηση για τη χρήση της Ελληνικής γλώσσας. Θεωρώ ότι και άλλα άτομα που θα ήθελαν να μοιραστούν τις απόψεις τους μαζί μας θα ήθελαν να το κάνουν στα Ελληνικά με τα οποία, ίσως, να εκφράζονται καλύτερα. Προσωπικά ξεφεύγω και από την καθημερινή χρήση της Αγγλικής μια και διαμένω εκτός Κύπρου.
Επί του θέματος... Κατ΄ αρχήν η υποψηφιότητα Χριστόφια είναι καλοδεχούμενη. Η λειτουργία της αντιπροσωπευτικής Δημοκρατίας απαιτεί την (αντι)παράθεση όλων των δυνατών επιλογών μπροστά στο εκλογικό σώμα, επί τη βάση των προγραμμάτων και των ιδεολογιών τους και όχι τη δημιουργία μετώπων από καταφανώς ετερόκλητες δυνάμεις με μοναδικό σκοπό την νομή της εξουσίας.
Για αυτά καθ΄ αυτά τα κόμματα τι σηματοδοτεί η νέα εξέλιξη?
Το ΑΚΕΛ είχε να κάνει μια δύσκολη επιλογή. Από τη μια η συμπόρευση με τον Παπαδόπουλο θα εξασφάλιζε μεν τη συνέχιση της συμμετοχής στην εξουσία, με ό,τι αυτό συνεπάγεται, αλλά από την άλλη, ίσως, να οδηγούσε ακόμη και σε συρρίκνωση του κόμματος με ένα κομμάτι να αποξενώνεται πλήρως από το κόμμα, λόγω διαφωνίας με τις πολιτικές Παπαδόπουλου, κυρίως στο Κυπριακό, ενώ ένα άλλο βρίσκεται με το ένα πόδι, αν όχι και με τα δύο, στο άρμα του Τάσσου. Φαίνεται πως επέλεξαν το ρίσκο της απώλειας της εξουσίας και είναι, μάλλον, λογικό, γιατί τελικά και την εξουσία μπορεί να κρατήσουν και το κόμμα τους ενωμένο και από τον Τάσσο να απαλλαγούν...
Για τον ΔΗΣΥ δεν χρειάζεται ιδιαίτερη ανάλυση. Η μόνη δυνατότητα να ξαναμπεί στο παιχνίδι είναι η διάσπαση της τριμερούς. Εκεί που η αντιπολίτευση φαινόταν μόνιμη κατάσταση είναι πιθανόν να επιστρέψει στο Προεδρικό. Στα υπέρ η διεκδίκηση της Προεδρίας από το καλύτερο από τα προβεβλημένα στελέχη του, στα κατά η πολύ χαμηλή εκτίμηση και αποδοχή της ηγεσίας του κόμματος, όχι και πολύ άδικα, στους υπόλοιπους κομματικούς χώρους και όχι μόνο.
Για το ΔΗΚΟ τα πράγματα δεν είναι τόσο άσχημα όσο φαίνονται με μια πρώτη ανάγνωση. Εάν ο Τάσσος δεν περάσει στον 2ο γύρο, Πρόεδρος θα εκλεγεί, πιθανότατα, όποιος εξασφαλίσει την υποστήριξη του κόμματος αυτού άρα και συμμετοχή στην εξουσία. Να θυμήσω ότι στη κυβέρνηση Κληρίδη συμμετείχαν περισσότεροι ΔΗΚΟικοί υπουργοί απ΄ ότι στην αντίστοιχη Παπαδόπουλου...
Η "αποστρατεία" Τάσσου πιθανόν να επιτρέψει στο ΔΗΚΟ να κινηθεί πιο έξυπνα και δυναμικά στο πολιτικό πεδίο. Απλά να αναφέρω ότι για ένα σημαντικό αριθμό στελεχών του ΔΗΚΟ ο Τάσσος και η "παρέα της Ένωσης Κέντρου" δεν είναι ΔΗΚΟ!
Η ΕΔΕΚ είχε πάντα καλή σχέση με την ποίηση. Στη συγκεκριμένη φάση τους ταιριάζει το Καβαφικό "άβουλοι και μοιραίοι". Άβουλοι γιατί δεν προβάλλουν μια δική τους ατζέντα βασισμένη στις αρχές της Σοσιαλδημοκρατίας και μοιραίοι γιατί καταδέχονται να παίξουν το ρόλο του λαγού στο κυνήγι του Τάσσου. Και αυτό για να παραμείνουν στην εξουσία και να αυξήσουν κατά τι τα ποσοστά τους διά της αλάνθαστης μεθόδου του ρουσφετιού. Ένα άθλημα στο οποίο, ομολογουμένως, καταγράφουν επιτυχίες...
Στοιχειώδης αυτοσεβασμός δεν μου επιτρέπει να ασχοληθώ με τους τυχοδιώκτες πολιτικούς(?) του ΕΥΡΩΚΟ.
Το μόνο σίγουρο στις πολιτικές εξελίξεις είναι πως θα έχουμε, όπως φαίνεται, μια ενδιαφέρουσα περίοδο με αντιπαραθέσεις, κτυπήματα κάτω από τη μέση καθώς και κάτι από λάσπη...
Σε όσους άντεξαν να με διαβάσουν μέχρι εδώ απολογούμαι για τη μακροσκελή παρέμβαση.
Allow me to make a comment in regards to both Christofia’s decision to run for presidency and EDEK’s approach to the whole election process, since those are the two parties that actually had a dilemma, since neither DH.KO nor DH.SY had any.
As some of you have pointed out it was almost imperative for AKEL to run with its own candidate because it was about to lose some of its voters to Tassos. This, however, (and also as pointed out) allows DH.SY to (seriously) get back in the game. But if AKEL was truthful when it articulated the dangers emanating from DH.SY (both during the Clerides government and during Tassos’ presidency), then one should wonder what is more important to AKEL; retaining its percentages (i.e. its voters), or safeguarding the Republic from the ‘dangerous’ leadership (i.e. DH.SY)? If it’s the former, then how should the non-AKEL voters view AKEL’s actions during the ‘second Sunday’ (assuming AKEL goes through)? If ‘sispirosis’ is a big enough incentive for AKEL to risk the presidential outcome and bring its archenemy and ‘blame-for-all’ DH.SY to power, then there must be something seriously wrong with AKEL’s thinking. They either do not mind if Kasoulides comes to power (i.e. because their political lines are not that different), or they don’t care, as long as AKEL’s percentages remain high. Either way it’s problematic.
AKEL might be simply playing it safe (for two reasons) a. It finally provides its people with an AKEL candidate, which was the leftists’ earnest desire the past few years and b. if either Tassos or Kasoulides come to power and things go south (which is a good possibility for that to happen in the next five years) AKEL will blame the other parties for the next 50 years (including DHKO and EDEK) for not voting them to power. This way it will manage to keep the ‘syspirosis’ for years to come, which seems to be AKEL’s ultimate goal.
As far as EDEK goes even though it seems that they play it “avouloi and moiraoi” this may or may not be the case. For EDEK, coming down with its own candidate (and own new political lines) equals automatic exclusion for Tassos from the second Sunday. This would provide EDEK with an even harder dilemma, namely that of Christofias and Kasoulides without any alternatives. Therefore, even if EDEK does not like Tassos (or its policies) very much, it seems to like him more than AKEL’s and DHSY’s candidates. This is not to say that EDEK is not playing it safe too; it does considering that it will still have the option to choose between all candidates in the second Sunday. But, at least this way it will give Tassos a more realistic chance and more importantly give themselves an alternative that they consider better than Christofias and Kasoulides.
What is certain is that there will be lose-lose scenarios for a substantial part of the population. A great number of people will for the first time in the Republic’s history have a very hard time voting (i.e. What would DHSY voters do in second Sunday if Kasoulides doesn’t go through; what would AKEL funs do if Christofias doesn’t make it? Vote for the president they just said they don’t agree with or for their archenemy? What would DHKO do if Tassos’ doesn’t go through? Vote for the party who sold them out or for Anastasiades’ candidate?) In other words, there will be a number of lose-lose scenarios for many people regardless of who goes through to the second round. How damaging (or beneficial) this could be for Cyprus politics remains to be seen.
I apologize for the very long comment.
As somebody who will be voting for Kasoulides, I will vote for Christofias in the second Sunday if my candidate doesn't pass.
I am a liberal democrat in my economic and political beliefs and conservative in everything else. I have no fixation, nor do I suffer from political constipation. I'd vote leftist Christofias a million times over an ultra-right wing opponent any time. If Christofias does well, then good for him and Cyprus. If he doesnt, then I guarantee that Dh.SY will be the next government forming party. Let's hope Cyprus is still intact by then.
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